Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century

Autor(en)

Antje Weisheimer, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Tim Stockdale, Michael Mayer, S. Sharmila, Harry Hendon, Oscar Alves

Abstrakt

In order to explore temporal changes of predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901–2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of enhanced long-range skill at the beginning and at the end of the twentieth century, and an extended multi-decadal epoch of reduced skill during the 1930s–1950s. Once the forecast skill extends beyond the first spring barrier, the predictability limit is much enhanced and our results provide support for the feasibility of skillful ENSO forecasts up to 18 months. Changes in the mean state, variability (amplitude), persistence, seasonal cycle and predictability suggest that multi-decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO rather than the data coverage and quality of the observations have primarily driven the reported non-monotonic skill modulations.

Organisation(en)

Institut für Meteorologie und Geophysik

Externe Organisation(en)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), University of Southern Queensland

Journal

Geophysical Research Letters

Band

49

Anzahl der Seiten

12

ISSN

0094-8276

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097885

Publikationsdatum

05-2022

Peer-reviewed

Ja

ÖFOS 2012

105206 Meteorologie

Schlagwörter

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Geophysics, Allgemeine Erdkunde und Planetologie

Link zum Portal

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/de/publications/5ac5c729-0dfb-4a1a-8ad1-7a451e67f358